The pandemic is receding the world over. But the Virus is firing back at China in local spurts. In recent November, 22 daily peak cases have been the highest so far in China, amounting to more than 40000 cases daily. Govt has resorted to its earlier containment strategy of ZERO COVID by enforcing city-wide lockdowns, mass testing, and quarantines. Lockdowns could be advocated in the initial phase of any pandemic for the government to gear up the healthcare system. When the world is returning to normalcy, the Chinese populace has been given the option to remain in lock-up inside their houses or face being reeled under the Police Vans on the road.
Chinese Govt has notoriously scored highest on the stringency index during the pandemic. Continued draconian measures fuel the misery and discontent and are likely to invite public wrath and revolt.
A simple look at the Covid-19 pandemic graph of China shows only one surge, while every other country in the world has witnessed at least three waves of the pandemic. So, epidemiologically, China is going through the second wave of the pandemic. And the pandemics tend to leash a devastating second wave. But there is a silver lining behind dark clouds. Although we in India went through a harrowing Second wave, it gave long-lasting robust immunity to most of the population, making the future journey easier.
This current upsurge in China has been driven mainly by the BF.7 Omicron subvariant. Omicron and its variants though faster in transmission but, cause milder disease. Chinese Govt needs to learn from the world’s experience, shun Zero Covid and take the contagion head-on. The Virus has to run through the population. Models might be painting a scary scenario. But now, the treatment protocols for Covid-19 have been established. Many people have been vaccinated; hence cases of severe disease are less likely. Moreover, the world has surplus supplies of antivirals, equipment and oxygen concentrators which can be rushed to China in case of need.
China used the home-grown inactivated vaccine by Sinopharm, which had an efficacy of nearly 52% against symptomatic disease. There may be controversies about this data, but the recent surge of cases equated to post-marketing surveillance of the vaccines is yelling loud that Chinese people need better vaccines.
Humanitarian aid and vaccines are available, but Chinese leadership needs to shun the attitude and arrogance and look at the long-term interest of its people and economy. Lately, under public pressure, the Chinese govt has eased some terms of lockdown and quarantine, allowing people home isolation and work in quarantine if they tested negative. But it seems a tactic to cool public anger rather than a change in the mindset of the Chinese think tank. Several countries like Hong Kong, Australia, and Vietnam have already bitten the dust following Zero Covid. Earlier, the Communist Party of China learned it better it would be. Fighting the invisible contagion Zero way is just impossible.
References
1. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04235-w
2. https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2022.2096970 CoronaVac: A review of efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of the inactivated vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 Lairun Jin ,Zhuopei Li ,Xiaoyin Zhang,Jingxin Li &Fengcai Zhu
3. www.vox.com/platform/amp/future-perfect/2022/11/30/23485943/china-protes…
4. theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/29/china-zero-covid-policy-what-is-it-and-why-lockdowns-quarantine-protests
Fighting the Contagion Zero Way is Impossible.